Clusters Explained

Clusters describe how a trend behaves over time based on historical growth patterns.

While the Popularity Index measures the size of a trend, clusters describe the trajectory and behavior of that trend's demand. Clusters are derived from three years of historical search and social performance and help identify whether a trend is rapidly accelerating, growing steadily, seasonal, declining, or stable.

Clusters help answer the question:

How is this trend moving?

Rising Star

A Rising Star is a trend experiencing rapid acceleration in a short period of time.

Characteristics

• Sharp increase in search and/or social interest
• Recent growth significantly outpaces historical baseline
• Momentum driven by emerging cultural attention

What It Signals

Rising Stars represent high momentum and high potential opportunity, but they may also carry more volatility.

These trends are often driven by:

• Emerging consumer needs
• Viral cultural moments
• Influencer or creator adoption

Because they are early signals, Rising Stars are often valuable for innovation teams and early movers.

Sustained Riser

A Sustained Riser is a trend experiencing consistent growth over an extended period of time.

Characteristics

• Long-term upward trajectory
• Stable, predictable growth
• Lower volatility than Rising Stars

What It Signals

Sustained Risers often indicate:

• Validated consumer demand
• Expanding adoption
• Long-term category growth

These trends tend to be more stable investment opportunities than Rising Stars.

Seasonal Riser

A Seasonal Riser is a trend that experiences predictable annual peaks in demand.

Characteristics

• Recurring spikes in interest each year
• Consistent seasonal patterns
• Gradual long-term growth across cycles

Examples may include trends tied to:

• Seasonal ingredients
• Weather-driven products
• Holiday-related categories

Understanding seasonal patterns helps teams plan:

• Product launches
• Inventory allocation
• Marketing timing

Seasonality does not necessarily indicate short-term trends — many seasonal trends are long-term category drivers.

Decliners

There are three decliner types: Falling Star, Seasonal Decliner, and Sustained Decliner. All three share a pattern of decreasing interest over time, but differ in the shape of that decline.

• Falling Star — A trend that rose quickly and is now losing momentum just as fast. High volatility in both directions.
• Seasonal Decliner — A trend with seasonal patterns where interest is weakening cycle over cycle, even at its peaks.
• Sustained Decliner — A trend with a long, steady downward trajectory across search and social over time.

Characteristics

• Negative year-over-year growth
• Reduced search and social engagement
• Shrinking consumer attention

What It Signals

Declining trends may indicate:

• Category saturation
• Consumer fatigue
• Shifts in consumer preferences

High popularity does not necessarily mean a trend is healthy — declining momentum often signals future contraction.

Flat

A Flat trend shows minimal growth or decline over time.

Characteristics

• Stable search and social interest
• Limited acceleration or decline
• Consistent baseline demand

What It Signals

Flat trends may indicate:

• Established categories with steady demand
• Mature markets with limited innovation
• Products that have become consumer staples

These trends are often reliable but rarely represent new growth opportunities.

Clusters and Lifecycle Stage

Clusters are one input into Lifecycle Stage, not the whole picture. Clusters show how a trend behaves over time — its shape, velocity, and pattern of growth or decline — but Lifecycle Stage is determined by a combination of signals. Use clusters to understand trend trajectory, and always read them alongside Lifecycle Stage for full context.