How To: Understand Predictive Growth

Discover how Spate predicts growth for trends.

What is Predictive Growth? 🤔

Predictive Growth is Spate's proprietary metric for forecasting trend behavior within the next 12-Months by analyzing three years of historical data.

How does Spate predict growth for declining trends? 🔍

Spate's model evaluates multiple factors, such as seasonality, historical patterns for a specific trend or brands, adjustments for shifts in consumer behavior and platform usage, emerging sub-trends, and macroeconomic indicators. By identifying hidden signals, the model can also project potential rebounds despite current declines based on historical data.

How accurate is Spate’s Predicted Growth?

Historically, our data has about a 70% accuracy rate for our predictions, which we rank annually in our Predicted Trends Report. These can be found in the Spotlight Section of the dashboard.

How should I interpret a trend that’s a sustained decliner but predicted to grow? ⚡

If a trend is classified as a Sustained Decliner but shows predicted growth, it may mean Spate's model has detected signals of possible recovery. If the Confidence Score is marked "Uncertain," it indicates an equal likelihood of growth or continued decline based on current and historical data. Additionally, Sustained Decliners can be influenced by platform usage decline, the same way that Sustained Risers can be influenced by platform usage increase. This is where using our Popularity Index feature in the Overview tab will help you visualize adjusted growth rates indexed against Category growth.

Why do declining trends present opportunities? 🚀

Declining trends may reflect temporary factors like seasonality, market saturation, or external disruptions. This is helpful for analysis and decision making related to Retail Planning, Product Development, and more.

What data does Spate analyze? 📊

Spate analyzes search trends, social media activity, e-commerce behavior, and industry data to create a comprehensive view of consumer interest and emerging patterns.

How can brands use predictive growth insights? 💡

Brands can:

Anticipate shifts in consumer demand
Identify emerging niches within declining categories
Innovate products to align with future trends
Optimize marketing strategies for growth potential